\u201cWhere we are today is frightening,\u201d Ahamed, the Pulitzer Prize-winning author of\u00a0Lords of Finance<\/em>: The Bankers Who Broke the World<\/em>, told Fortune<\/em> in an interview. The historian, whose landmark 2009 book chronicled how four central bankers helped cause the Great Depression, was speaking about America\u2019s national debt \u2014 now hovering around $39 trillion \u2014 and the mounting risks he sees in the global financial system.<\/p>\n His new book,\u00a01873: The Rothschilds, the First Great Depression, and the Making of the Modern World<\/em>, examines a forgotten financial crisis that swept the United States, Central Europe, and the emerging markets of the Ottoman Empire and Egypt simultaneously \u2014 a global contagion that most people have never heard of. The parallels to the present, he says, are hard to ignore.<\/p>\n A clear similarity, he said, is the \u201ccraziness that markets develop when they\u2019re in bubbles,\u201d citing a quote from Cornelius Vanderbilt that, essentially, \u201cbuilding railroads from nowhere to nowhere is not a viable business.\u201d You can sort of feel, he added, that one day \u201cwe will discover that building data centers, you know, willy nilly spending a trillion dollars a year on data centers for the next three years is bound to end in tears in the same way as the dotcom bubble ended in tears.\u201d<\/p>\n But that\u2019s not what really alarms Ahamed, he clarified.<\/p>\n The scenario that worries Ahamed most isn\u2019t abstract. It has a precedent \u2014 and it nearly happened once before in living memory.<\/p>\n In 2008, at the height of the global financial crisis, then-Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson was in Beijing when he learned that Russia had approached China with a proposal: dump their massive holdings of U.S. agency debt, and accelerate the financial meltdown already underway on Wall Street. \u201cThe Chinese very sensibly said no,\u201d Ahamed recounted. But the episode left a mark on him. If the next financial crisis played out against the backdrop of extreme tension with China, he added, \u201cyou could imagine a lot of things happening that would not be \u2026 that would not work out.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cCan you imagine, in the middle of a financial crisis, if one of our major foreign holders of our national debt decides, this is an opportune time to launch an attack on U.S. financial supremacy?\u201d he said. It didn\u2019t happen with China and Russia in 2008, he added, but he did stumble across a parallel in the research for his book. \u201cThat\u2019s essentially what happened between Germany and France in 1873. And it damaged the world for 20 years.\u201d <\/p>\n After defeating France in the Franco-Prussian War of 1870\u201371, as explained in the book (and which this author would recommend checking out), Germany sought to press its advantage financially \u2014 deliberately targeting France\u2019s silver reserves in a bid to destroy its economic standing. The move triggered a global collapse of silver prices, froze half the world\u2019s precious metal reserves, and helped ignite the cascading crises of 1873. The resulting depression lasted two decades.<\/p>\n Much like Lords of Finance<\/em> explained how a fixation on gold in the 1920s led to central banking mistakes that would be laughed at today, Ahamed said he was shocked to discover silver\u2019s essential role in the epic crash of 1873, now mostly forgotten. \u201cThe world ended up dispensing with silver, purely because of a geopolitical accident \u2014 in the middle of the crisis, Germany decides to double down by attacking France\u2019s hoard of silver, thinking this is the way, you know, we already beat them in a military fight, now we\u2019ll get them in a financial fight. And it had the totally unintended effect of causing everyone to bail out of silver, causing silver prices to collapse.\u201d Germany may have gotten one over on France, but it also had the effect of essentially freezing half the world\u2019s precious metal reserves. Oops.<\/p>\n Ahamed, who speaks with a clipped, distinguished British accent that sounded to this American\u2019s ears like the BBC\u2019s Received Pronunciation, explained that he grew up in Africa before moving to the U.K. and the U.S., and that he\u2019s struck by how different the economic history is for his kids. The famous \u201ccross of gold\u201d speech by William Jennings Bryan holds a central place in American history that it doesn\u2019t elsewhere.<\/p>\n \u201cThat came as a real light bulb going off in my mind,\u201d he said excitedly. \u201cSuddenly, I understood why there was such a giant debate about silver in the the last 20 years of the 19th century.\u201d Ahamed added that this world featured many colorful characters and commentators, as a young Mark Twain commented on the financial panics of the day but also it was one of the few times that Karl Marx was right in prognosticating the downfall of capitalism, for once. Ahamed laughed when I asked if Marx was something like the Michael Burry of his day. \u201cHe had a dour view of the future,\u201d he allowed, adding that it\u2019s \u201chard to imagine Karl Marx as Michael Burry.\u201d<\/p>\n The question Ahamed was left with after his research is how Germany and France set off a butterfly effect in the 1870s. Could China do the same to the United States, at a moment when Washington is least able to absorb it?<\/p>\n Financial crises, he said, \u201cdon\u2019t occur in a geopolitical vacuum.\u201d<\/p>\n Ahamed was careful not to predict a timeline. He\u2019s been studying financial history too long for that.<\/p>\n \u201cThings take much longer to happen than you imagine,\u201d he said, invoking the late MIT economist Rudi Dornbusch<\/a>\u2018s famous adage. \u201cAnd once they happen, they happen much quicker.\u201d<\/p>\n That dynamic, he argues, is the common thread running through every major financial crisis he has studied \u2014 from the gold-standard delusions of the 1920s to the railroad mania and silver crash of the 1870s. The debt reckoning, when it comes, will likely arrive the same way. \u201cEveryone predicts that at some point it will kick in with a vengeance,\u201d he said. \u201cSuddenly, everyone will say, this is crazy \u2014 we\u2019ve got a national debt that we cannot afford to service. And it\u2019ll happen very quickly.\u201d<\/p>\n He pointed to the brief, chaotic tenure of British Prime Minister Liz Truss in 2022 as a small-scale preview of what\u2019s ahead for America. When Truss announced plans to fund sweeping tax cuts with borrowed money, bond markets revolted within days, yields spiked, and the pound cratered. She resigned 45 days into the job \u2014 outlasted, as one cruel tabloid pointed out, by a head of lettuce. \u201cThere are examples in today\u2019s world of the market suddenly waking up.\u201d<\/p>\n Ahamed is not, by temperament, an apocalyptist. He draws a careful distinction between countries that have faced down catastrophic debt and survived \u2014 and those that have not.<\/p>\n Britain, after the Napoleonic Wars, carried a national debt of roughly 200% of GDP, he noted \u2014 and spent the next half-century methodically paying it down while the British Empire expanded. The United States itself emerged from World War II with debt exceeding 100% of GDP and grew its way out of that over 25 years. \u201cThere have been examples of countries growing themselves out of a national debt,\u201d he said. \u201cAnd there have been examples of countries that failed.\u201d The national debt is now roughly 100% of GDP<\/a>, crossing that threshold in late April, and is projected to climb to 120% by 2036.<\/p>\n Historically, the difference has come down to political discipline, institutional credibility, and the absence of an external shock. In today\u2019s environment \u2014 with geopolitical tensions elevated, the dollar\u2019s reserve-currency status quietly under challenge, and fiscal consensus in Washington essentially nonexistent \u2014 Ahamed said he sees fewer of those buffers in place than he would like. <\/p>\n For all his alarm, Ahamed says that studying history has made him \u2014 counterintuitively \u2014 more optimistic, not less.<\/p>\n Having worked for years as a professional investment manager, including a stint at the World Bank, Ahamed now finds himself a bona fide financial historian. Lords of Finance<\/em> not only won the Pulitzer Prize for History, but also the Council on Foreign Relations Arthur Ross Gold Medal and the\u00a0Financial Times<\/em>\u00a0Best Business Book of the Year Award.\u00a0He rather likes studying history, and the gloomier the better, he explained to Fortune<\/em>.<\/p>\n The benefit of history, he said, is that it \u201ctakes you away from the day to day\u201d and he finds himself less obsessed by current events. Being a historian is a tonic for people who are always complaining about how bad the world seems today, because, after all, things have always been rather bad if you look closely enough.<\/p>\n \u201cThe more depressing the history, the more optimistic I get,\u201d he said. \u201cYou could say, \u2018God, we went through much worse times.\u2019 And we came through.\u201d<\/p>\n The question, then, isn\u2019t whether to get frightened by what\u2019s happening in the world today, but to ask, why weren\u2019t you frightened in the first place?<\/p>\n Liaquat Ahamed\u2019s new book, 1873, is out June 2 from Penguin Press. He will appear at the 92nd Street Y in New York on June 10.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Liaquat Ahamed has spent his career studying the moments when the world\u2019s financial system breaks down \u2014 the bad bets, the collective delusions, and the geopolitical accidents that tip economies into catastrophe. Right now, he says, he doesn\u2019t like what he sees. \u201cWhere we are today is frightening,\u201d Ahamed, the Pulitzer Prize-winning author of\u00a0Lords of<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":3688,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[2054,56,204],"tags":[2372,96,2373],"class_list":["post-3687","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-banking","category-business","category-finance","tag-books","tag-history","tag-national-debt"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/owspakistan.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3687","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/owspakistan.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/owspakistan.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/owspakistan.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/owspakistan.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=3687"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/owspakistan.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3687\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/owspakistan.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/3688"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/owspakistan.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=3687"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/owspakistan.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=3687"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/owspakistan.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=3687"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}The doomsday scenario<\/h2>\n
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<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<\/div>\nThe slow build, the sudden snap<\/h2>\n
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<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<\/div>\nHistory offers a narrow escape hatch<\/h2>\n
A historian\u2019s unexpected optimism<\/h2>\n