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New attacks raise questions about what comes next in Iran war

New attacks raise questions about what comes next in Iran war

WASHINGTON– President Donald Trump says he believes the ceasefire with Iran is over. He says he is no longer sure he wants a deal and that the United States should “finish the job.” But he also insists that continued attacks do not mean a return to war or long-term actions. The confusion and uncertainty in

WASHINGTON– President Donald Trump says he believes the ceasefire with Iran is over. He says he is no longer sure he wants a deal and that the United States should “finish the job.” But he also insists that continued attacks do not mean a return to war or long-term actions.

The confusion and uncertainty in Trump’s mixed messages and his approval of back-to-back military strikes leave big questions about what comes next in the conflict, just weeks into difficult diplomacy to reach even an initial agreement between the former adversaries.

The aggressive rhetoric could be a strategy to increase pressure on Tehran to stop attacking ships carrying oil and natural gas in the Strait of Hormuz and give in to US demands over its nuclear program, something Trump has tried before.

Whether it’s a negotiating tactic or a sign of escalating fighting, mediators are scrambling to salvage the interim deal and the moves risk further inflaming tensions, which could spell trouble for Republicans in November’s midterm elections if gas prices remain high.

Trump warned Wednesday that a new round of U.S. strikes was coming, even as he sought to shrug off suggestions of a return to full-scale war. Hours later, the military announced that it was carrying out new attacks against Iran with the aim of “further degrading its ability to threaten freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.”

“Anything that happens will happen very quickly,” Trump said earlier. “We’re not looking for long.”

A regional intelligence official involved in mediation efforts said the conflict had reached a critical stage as mutual distrust increases. But high-level communications are ongoing around the clock to salvage the ceasefire, said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss delicate behind-the-scenes negotiations.

The foreign ministers of Pakistan and Qatar, as well as Egypt’s intelligence chief, are leading the efforts, while Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, whose country hosted the NATO summit that concluded Wednesday, and leaders of Saudi Arabia are also involved, the official said.

The United States is angered by attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz and accuses Iran of delaying discussions on reducing its nuclear program, the official said. The nuclear talks were the next important step in trying to turn the interim agreement announced last month into a lasting end to the war.

Meanwhile, Tehran says Washington is the one violating the cross-strait agreement and failing to ensure that a ceasefire in Lebanon, including an Israeli withdrawal, is implemented, the official said.

Michael Eisenstadt, a former U.S. military analyst who now heads the Military and Security Studies Program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said, “We’re still in negotiation mode, no matter what the president says.”

“This is part of the negotiation, and declaring that the MoU is over is also part of the negotiation,” Eisenstadt said, referring to the memorandum of understanding on which the ceasefire was based.

Trump, however, has been explicit in public comments, saying that he has lost interest in preserving the ceasefire: “I think it’s over.”

“We can play, but I’m not sure I want to make a deal,” he said during the NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey, adding that the U.S. military could “just finish the job.”

Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, Iran’s chief negotiator, said the Trump administration had repeatedly violated the terms of the initial deal, forcing the country to respond appropriately.

“The era of intimidation and extortion is over. It leads nowhere. We are not retreating,” Qalibaf posted on X.

Pakistan, which helped negotiate the ceasefire, said a resumption of the conflict “benefits no one” and urged both sides to honor their commitments.

“There is no alternative to continued engagement, dialogue and diplomacy to achieve the shared goal of peace in the region,” its Foreign Ministry said in a statement.

Trump, however, dismissed Tehran’s leaders, calling them “scum” and “sick people.” Last month, Trump said Iran’s leadership was “very rational” and “nice to deal with,” while calling the country’s leaders “smart people.”

At an event in Milwaukee on Wednesday, Vice President JD Vance, who led U.S. efforts to reach the initial deal with Tehran, said Iran “behaved well for about a week.” He added that the country had recently begun attacking the strait and said: “If they shoot at the ships, we are going to knock them out.”

Before the United States and Iran reached their first two-week ceasefire in April, Trump escalated his threats, promising that American forces would bomb Iranian bridges, roads and power plants. He even posted online: “An entire civilization will die tonight and will never be resurrected.”

He repeated dire threats before the tentative 60-day deal to end the war was reached last month.

Trump likes to look for ways to negotiate from a position of strength, and he could be seeking more leverage with new attacks. But being unequivocal about ending the ceasefire could also liberate Iran militarily, which could again roil oil prices and financial markets.

Ali Vaez, Iranian director of the International Crisis Group, argued that escalating threats may be a riskier move this time, given the domestic and international risks to the United States.

“It certainly seems like an effort to increase military pressure without yet closing the diplomatic door. But coercive negotiation is a dangerous game: at some point, a pressure campaign can gain momentum of its own and become the war it was apparently intended to avoid,” Váez said.

However, he added that Iran still has every reason to return to the table because it desperately needs the economic relief promised in the interim deal.

Trump has also sent mixed signals about the consequences.

He long insisted that rising gasoline prices for Americans was not a factor in his calculations on Iran, only to say that part of the reason he agreed to the interim deal was to avoid an “economic catastrophe.” He has since boasted about the drop in the price of oil after the deal was reached.

The president renewed his past threats to attack Iran’s civilian infrastructure, possibly including power plants and desalination plants, and seize the oil production center of Kharg Island.

“We can take over Kharg Island,” he said. “There’s nothing they can do about it.”

Still, the midterm elections are less than four months away, when Republicans hope to retain control of the House and Senate. Oil prices are rising again amid heightened uncertainty about the war, meaning Americans will likely continue to see higher prices at the pumps.

The president tried to downplay such concerns, saying, “Every time we hit them, it goes up a little bit: $2.” In fact, U.S. oil futures rose much higher and may continue to rise even as Trump acknowledged, “As oil goes, so does everything else.”

“If we hit Iran, oil goes up a little bit,” he said, arguing that it was worth preventing Iran from getting a nuclear weapon. “Alright.”

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Amiri reported from New York and Magdy from Cairo. Associated Press writer Munir Ahmed in Islamabad, Pakistan, contributed to this report.

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