the world could are facing the strongest El Niño phenomenon since records began, increasing the likelihood of extreme weather events and significant long-term economic impacts globally.

A new analysis by Berkeley Earth climate scientist Zeke Hausfather paints a worrying picture of the climate phenomenon unfolding in the Pacific Ocean. Models have consistently predicted that this year’s El Niño, characterized by warmer-than-normal waters in the eastern tropical Pacific, could be among the strongest on record. Hausfather’s analysis using the El Niño forecast based on 14 climate models through July indicates that “this year’s El Niño is not only very likely to be the strongest event since reliable records began, but it may end up being the strongest by a truly mind-boggling margin.”

Climate researchers measure the strength of El Niño by looking at temperatures in a region of the Pacific known as Niño 3.4, which covers the eastern and central part of the ocean basin. The new analysis is based on 667 simulations and compares them with historical records of the strongest El Niño events since 1877. It also disentangles the intensity of El Niño from background warming driven by fossil fuels, making it easier to make comparisons between super El Niño.

The model average shows that heat in the Niño 3.4 region could peak at 3.6 degrees Celsius (6.5 degrees Fahrenheit) above normal levels. This figure would surpass the previous record, set during the 2015-2016 El Niño episode, by approximately 0.8 degrees Celsius. It’s rare for records to fall so widely.

“For context, the gap between the strongest and the strongest fifth The strongest El Niño in the last 150 years is only 0.5°C. The models predict something beyond anything we have ever observed,” Hausfather writes.

Of course, what happens in the tropical Pacific does not stay in the tropical Pacific. El Niño reorganizes the atmosphere and changes weather patterns around the world. The stronger the El Niño, the stronger the impacts (usually).

Record ocean heat in the Pacific, combined with warming driven by carbon emissions, could push global temperatures to new highs. But it takes time for the additional heat released by El Niño to work its way through the vast climate system, meaning that next year we will see the full impact of this year’s Pacific heat wave on global average temperatures. According to their projections, global temperatures in 2027 could reach up to 1.7 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial average, well above the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold that has been called a relatively safe level of global warming.

But the world won’t have to wait until 2027 to feel the warmth of El Niño. A separate analysis by Carbon Brief shows the odds are increasing that 2026 will set an annual heat record, with the chance rising from 19 percent in April to 35 percent in July. And meteorologists expect extreme weather associated with El Niño to affect several parts of the world in the coming months. In fact, some impacts are already here: fisheries in the eastern Pacific are seeing lower catches, and the Peruvian government established a ban on catching anchovies this spring.

Hausfather’s analysis also revealed that the phenomenon is developing faster than usual. By comparison, this year’s El Niño is intensifying more rapidly than the 1997-1998 episode, another super Niño. It also differs significantly from the 2015 event, which began when the ocean was already showing signs of previous warming; In other words, it got off to a fast start. This is particularly surprising because this year started with La Niña, the colder-than-normal cousin of El Niño, so it had to do some work before it started.