Oil market volatility continued Tuesday, as prices fell for a second day this week due to a lull in fighting and hopes rose that the United States and Iran would renew talks to end the war.

Brent and US crude oil prices fell on Tuesday, extending Monday’s decline. Brent is down almost 16% in the two days, trading around $83 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell below $80 on Tuesday, falling about 12% in two days.

Talks about a renewed peace deal between the United States and Iran have helped push back oil prices after Brent rose above $100 for the first time since May earlier this month. President Donald Trump continues to provoke talks with Iran while maintaining that attacks could resume if a deal is not reached soon.

A pause in fighting announced over the weekend appeared to hold this week, and talks between Iran, Saudi Arabia and Oman over how the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz helped drive down crude oil prices further.

“There’s definitely still a lot of volatility in the oil markets,” said Dave Sekera, chief market strategist at Morningstar. “We’ve seen this exact same setup several times over the last two months. Basically, during the week, there is military action and retaliation, but it always seems that on Sunday night, before futures open, there are headlines that each side has agreed to de-escalate.”

Oil volatility comes at a critical time as investors prepare for the Federal Reserve’s July 29 interest rate decision. Between the question about the new central bank president and several subprime earnings reports, uncertainty is rising in the markets.

Lower oil prices are an important input to inflation, since much of the price pressure the Federal Reserve is looking at as it deliberates this week is being induced by war. While the Federal Reserve cannot control supply-side problems, hawkish observers argue that raising rates could give officials room to maneuver and get ahead of other inflationary pressures.

Combined with the gains from Meta and Microsoft, Rick Gardner, chief investment officer at RGA Investments, said Wednesday will be a hugely important day for the markets.

“While oil prices are sensitive to the Iran headlines, it is clear that the stock market is no longer moving at the same pace as oil prices, which is an extremely welcome sign and an indication that stocks are more focused on earnings, which have been strong so far this season,” he said.