Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety chief awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series (Updated: Aug. 11, 2026): Official episode submissions for the performers have been selected. Which nominee has the edge?

Sterling K. Brown, “Paradise” (Hulu) | “A Holy Charge”

A two-time winner for “This Is Us” and a dual nominee this year, Brown has been one of television’s most reliable dramatic leads for more than a decade. This marks his second consecutive nomination for Xavier Collins in the Hulu dystopian thriller. The question is whether voters feel compelled to reward him again.

Gary Oldman, “Slow Horses” (Apple TV) | “Tall Tales”

An Oscar winner still searching for his first Emmy; Oldman has now earned two nominations for playing Jackson Lamb. He delivers a performance built on repulsion and precision, exactly the type of work voters admire but don’t always reward. Still, the Apple TV spy drama has pulled off surprise Emmy wins in each of the past two years, first for writing, then directing. Acting could be next.

Mark Ruffalo, “Task” (HBO Max) | “A Still Small Voice”

A limited series winner in 2020 for “I Know This Much Is True,” Ruffalo returns with arguably the strongest work in Brad Ingelsby’s HBO Max crime drama. He doesn’t appear on television often, and the Television Academy has never hesitated to reward him when he does. It also helps that co-star Tom Pelphrey is competing in the supporting actor category, giving voters another potential package deal.

Rufus Sewell, “The Diplomat” (Netflix) | “Schrödinger’s Wife”

The same episode as Keri Russell, which is the right call for a performance that exists in direct conversation with hers. Sewell has been quietly excellent for three decades and finally has a role that lets him be funny and dangerous in the same frame. Hal Wyler may be television’s best supporting lead.

Noah Wyle, “The Pitt” (HBO Max) | “9:00 P.M.”

The defending champion submits the season’s final hour, arguably its strongest. Wyle is nominated for acting, directing and producing, while the HBO Max medical drama leads all programs with 25 nominations. Five nominations for “ER” in the 1990s. One trophy last year. Thirty years later, there may be room for even more admiration.

The final Emmy voting runs from Aug. 17-26, leading into the Creative Arts Awards and Governors Gala on Sept. 5-6, culminating with the Emmy Awards ceremony on Sept. 14 on NBC.