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Kalshi tries to turn flight cancellations into exchanges

Kalshi tries to turn flight cancellations into exchanges

Getting stuck at the airport after a canceled flight might be a little less painful, if you can take advantage of it. Kalshi is looking to open a new prediction market that could turn airport departure boards into a new commercial arena. According to a Tuesday filing with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the

Getting stuck at the airport after a canceled flight might be a little less painful, if you can take advantage of it.

Kalshi is looking to open a new prediction market that could turn airport departure boards into a new commercial arena. According to a Tuesday filing with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the company filed an application to offer contracts tied to flight cancellations.

The contracts will allow users to bet on percentages of how many flights are canceled at specific airports, given a fixed deadline, according to Kalshi’s presentation.

The prediction markets platform includes FlightAware as its primary data source. Department of Transportation statistics are listed as a secondary source, but only if FlightAware “is not available or does not publish a usable figure.”

However, there is a small drawback. FlightAware says Kalshi will not be allowed to use its data.

“No company is, or will be, authorized to use data collected through the FlightAware network for this purpose,” a spokesperson for FlightAware parent company RTX told Business Insider in a statement Wednesday. “Any customer who uses FlightAware in violation of the terms of use will have their account terminated.”

A Kalshi spokesperson told Business Insider that the market is not yet live, and while it “has utility in hedging travel-related risk,” the company is still evaluating it.

Kalshi’s presentation comes amid the summer travel rush in the United States, as Americans prepare to pack crowded airports while facing thunderstorms and operational disruptions that can complicate schedules.

These flight-related prediction markets could turn one of the most perplexing parts of travel into a marketable bet. Prediction markets work through contracts, where people can bet on everything from pop culture events and the weather to major events like Federal Reserve decisions.

The industry has come under heavy criticism from lawmakers, who have said companies like Kalshi and Polymarket allow insider trading, particularly in areas such as sports and politics. Several lawmakers in several states have proposed bills ranging from limits to outright bans on prediction markets.

In response, Kalshi has put up barriers to prevent insider trading. On the one hand, users must send employment verification before they can trade. The platform preemptively blocks politicians, athletes and other relevant individuals from trading in certain political and sports markets, the company said in March.

CEO Tarek Mansour said in June that insider trading is a bigger threat to the traditional stock market than to prediction markets.