WASHINGTON– The US military has halted its airstrikes against Iran after nearly two weeks of intensified bombing, while diplomatic efforts have moved forward to try to prevent a return to all-out war.

But it remains to be seen whether the United States and Iran are at a turning point in a mercurial conflict that will reach five months on Tuesday. President Donald Trump has threatened more attacks and said talks are continuing, while downplaying concerns that rising gas prices tied to the fighting could hurt Republicans in November’s midterm elections.

Adding to the uncertainty is the impact of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s planned visit to Trump next week in Washington. Israel, which launched the war alongside the United States on February 28, has been notably absent from renewed US attacks over Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping corridor through which 20% of the world’s oil normally flows.

“The Iranians understand that perhaps the situation could get worse because Israel could enter the conflict,” said Michael Singh, managing director of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. On the other hand, Israel’s lack of participation so far “may indicate to the Iranians that we are seeking to limit the conflict.”

Singh, who was senior director for the Middle East at the National Security Council during the George W. Bush administration, said he was hesitant to read too much into the lull in fighting.

“If it becomes a multi-day pause, it will be significant,” he said. “But it’s hard to say. Is it an operational pause? Is it a pause to allow for some kind of behind-the-scenes diplomacy?”

A regional official involved in the mediation efforts said concerted diplomacy was underway and that a pause in U.S. strikes and Iranian counterattacks against neighboring countries hosting U.S. forces was a “positive sign that helps their de-escalation efforts.”

The official said that both the United States and Iran want to return to the interim ceasefire agreement and that one compromise, which is being negotiated now, focuses on Iran managing ship transit through the Strait of Hormuz with fewer restrictions on ships. The official was not authorized to discuss the matter and spoke on condition of anonymity.

Iran controlled the narrow Persian Gulf waterway when the war began by firing on tankers and cargo ships. In turn, oil prices have soared during the conflict, which has been unpopular among many Americans and could leave some Republican lawmakers vulnerable in November.

Following the signing of a provisional ceasefire agreement in June, a battle broke out for control of the strait. Iran demanded that ships use a route close to its coast and said it could potentially charge tariffs. The ships were increasingly sailing a southern route along the coast of Oman under a US surveillance operation when Iran attacked some ships.

The United States renewed attacks on Iran’s coastal defenses, aiming to limit Tehran’s ability to attack ships in the strait. The Trump administration then expanded its targets, attacking bridges and infrastructure in the south and delving deeper into central Iran.

Singh said the attacks appear to be an attempt to get Iran back to the negotiating table. Now, he said, “the question would be: What kind of messages, if any, is the Iranian regime sending through diplomatic channels? Have those messages changed? Do they seem more eager to get back to talks?”

Among the challenges facing the United States is fractured leadership in Iran, with different factions vying for control, Singh said, something Trump administration officials have also noted. The people in charge in Iran may worry that reaching a deal with the United States will be seen as weakness and could loosen their grip on power.

Whatever the case, both the United States and Iran need the strait to be reopened for their own economic reasons.

“But they have very different conceptions of under what conditions and under whose control,” Singh said. “So we have to reach some kind of stable balance on those issues before we see a longer period of tranquility. I think this effort to negotiate with words and also with force will continue until we reach that balance.”

Despite the lull in fighting, tensions are high in the region.

Yemen’s Houthi rebels said Saturday they fired missiles and drones at Saudi Arabia in response to Saudi airstrikes on the strategic Red Sea city of Hodeida. Iran-backed rebels say they have closed the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which has become even more vital to Saudi oil exports since the disruption of the Strait of Hormuz.

The US military is also enforcing its naval blockade of Iranian ports, saying it disabled a Mozambique-flagged ship in the Gulf of Oman on Friday after the ship attempted to violate the blockade and ignored warnings.

Trump has also maintained threats against Iran even as he emphasized diplomacy. When asked Friday about his exit strategy, Trump said there are two ways.

“They can continue to do exactly what we’re doing and take them apart piece by piece. We could do it in a quicker manner, which we could do,” he told reporters in the Oval Office. “Or we can negotiate with them, which we are also doing now.”

While Trump said he doesn’t think Iran is “ready yet” to make a deal, he also said, “I think they’re getting more and more serious as the days go by, maybe for an obvious reason.”

Trump met with top national security advisers on Friday to discuss the situation with Iran and whether the administration should stay the course or escalate military strikes, according to a U.S. official who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations. There were no overnight US strikes in Iran after 13 consecutive nights.

Trump insisted Friday that he was “in no rush” to wrap things up because of the upcoming election, in which voters angry over high food and gas prices could throw his Republican Party out of control of Congress.

“Despite what everyone says about the elections, I’m in no hurry,” he said. “We have to do it right. The elections take care of themselves.”

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Magdy reported from Cairo. Associated Press writer Matthew Lee contributed to this report.