Economics has a term for what food prices have done in the United States in recent years: skyrocket.

Rockets, because the cost of food consumed at home skyrocketed after the pandemic. Feathers, because once prices rise, they take time to fall.

This has been frustrating for Americans hit by the largest increase in food prices in 50 years. While food price inflation peaked in 2022, when prices rose 11.4%, prices have not changed course. An acceleration in inflation after the United States and Israel attacked Iran has prolonged the worsening.

“I think the public is starting to say, ‘Well, I hear inflation has slowed, but things aren’t getting cheaper.’ There has to be deflation for prices to go down, and that’s very rare,” said Matt Hamory, who heads the global grocery practice at consulting firm AlixPartners.

Domestic food prices are expected to rise 2.7% nationwide this year, the U.S. Department of Agriculture reported Friday. This is higher than the inflation grocery shoppers saw in 2024 and 2025, but close to the historical average of 2.6%.

It’s the compounding effect of post-pandemic price shocks that consumers are still feeling and reacting to in ways that could have repercussions for the U.S. economy.

A recent study by the consulting firm Bain & Co. and market research firm NielsenIQ said the number of items purchased at U.S. grocery stores declined in the second half of last year and fell more sharply beginning in February of this year. The study says high gasoline prices, increased use of LPG-1 and cuts in the number of people receiving government food aid are affecting grocery spending.

Consumers also look for deals and shop to find them. In the second quarter of this year, discounters like Costco, Walmart and Aldi took market share from traditional grocers like Kroger and Albertsons, according to Numerator, a market research firm.

Many American shoppers are also switching from name-brand products to store brands to save money. Total sales of private labels at supermarkets, pharmacies and other retailers grew to a record $282.8 billion last year, the Private Label Manufacturers Association said.

“Now that this option is available, why would I go back? You have the convenience, it’s the same thing, but my cost is 40% less and it’s a brand I know and trust,” said Sean Hooper, senior director of solutions at Relex Solutions, a retail and grocery consulting firm.

Prices soared for many reasons in the wake of the pandemic, from the war in Ukraine to a highly contagious bird flu that sent retail egg prices to record levels last year. And when prices skyrocket (whether for food, gasoline, or other items), consumers can count on a slow, gentle decline.

For one thing, retailers are reluctant to lower prices on inventory they ordered when wholesale prices were high, said Jared Bernstein, a senior fellow at the Stanford Economic Policy Institute who served as chairman of President Joe Biden’s Council of Economic Advisers.

Stores and food companies also want to maximize their profits and were reluctant to give up some of the sales gains they saw after the pandemic, Bernstein said. PepsiCo raised its prices by double-digit percentages for eight consecutive quarters in 2022 and 2023, for example, citing higher ingredient and packaging costs. After customer demand faltered, the company began lowering prices on some snacks last year.

Customer behavior can also help keep prices high. When prices rise, people look for lower prices. But consumers often stop looking for deals when they see prices drop, giving retailers less incentive to lower prices even further.

“There’s less competitive force on the softer side of the mountain,” Bernstein said.

In some cases, food inflation is the result of long-term problems that have no quick fix. Consider the average price of coffee, which has increased 54% in US cities since 2019, according to government data. Climate problems (including drought in Vietnam, heavy rains in Indonesia and hot, dry weather in Brazil) are blamed for reducing coffee yields and driving up global prices.

In other cases, there are clearer causes and simpler solutions. For example, U.S. consumers paid 19.5% more for fresh tomatoes in June compared to a year earlier due to a 17% import tax the Trump administration imposed on fresh tomatoes from Mexico. Coffee was also subject to a tariff for most of 2025, but the tariff was eventually removed.

Hamory said the situation could be starting to decline as large retailers invest in price cuts. In early July, Walmart said it was cutting prices on ground beef, corn, red cherries, ice cream, potato chips, and Coca-Cola and Pepsi products. Target also reduced prices on some foods in March.

“If the big guys are really investing and saying, ‘This is what I have to do to make peace with my customer,’ that will force others in the market to act,” Hamory said. “It’s just in the process of starting, but that’s something we could be looking at.”