Two major events are likely to drive financial markets this week: Nvidia’s second-quarter earnings report and the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. Before diving into each of those, let’s take a step back and look at the bigger picture. Perhaps the biggest development in markets over the last week has been the surge in
The enormous mountain of debt hanging over the economy has overshadowed the AI boom as the center of attention on Wall Street. For years—decades even—the spiraling trajectory of U.S. debt fueled dire warnings, which investors consistently brushed off as low borrowing costs helped turbocharge epic stock gains. Meanwhile, the debt pile galloped higher, interest costs
It’s grape season in Afghanistan’s southern province of Kandahar, and the harvest this year is plentiful. But that’s small comfort for the region’s grape producers and workers, who say fighting between Afghanistan and Pakistan has left them unable to access their primary market. For months, the two countries have traded fire sporadically across their long, mountainous border, leaving hundreds of people dead.
The word “Goldilocks” is meme-ing out in US markets right now. It’s a reference to how recent economic data has been neither too cold nor too hot. The labor market and consumer spending have been cooling lately, while inflation has remained relatively mild. For the purposes of keeping interest rates on hold, the recent figures
The fact that I am writing this is a bit shocking to me. I have been indifferent to gold for a long time, and for a simple reason: it falls outside my value framework. It has no cash flows. I have no idea what it is worth. I can debate the value of Microsoft or
The results of the Democratic primary delivered a blow to the progressive wing of the party, but also to Polymarket and Kalshi—popular prediction market platforms that had gained a near-infallible reputation after accurately forecasting the outcome of every state in the 2024 presidential election. Polymarket and Kalshi event contracts on the outcome of the Wisconsin