Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety chief awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual
Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety chief awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Steve Buscemi and Sam Rockwell in Wild Horse Nine. Photo by Searchlight Pictures/Diego Araya Corvalán, courtesy of Searchlight Pictures. © 2026 Searchlight Pictures. All rights reserved.
Searchlight Pictures
2027 Academy Awards Predictions Commentary All Categories (Updated: Sept. 17, 2026): TIFF’s sought-after People’s Choice Award, which will be handed out Sept. 20 at the close of the Toronto International Film Festival, is not a critics’ prize and not an industry vote. It is what tells us are the true crowd-pleasers.
Over the past 16 years, 14 People’s Choice winners have landed best picture nominations and four of them, “Nomadland,” “Green Book,” “12 Years a Slave” and “The King’s Speech,” went the distance and won it all. Last year’s champion, Focus Features’ “Hamnet,” turned the trophy into eight Oscar nominations and a best actress win for Jessie Buckley.
Focus Features is defending its crown with “Elsinore,” the Andrew Scott and Olivia Colman drama that earned warm notices out of Telluride and reads as pure People’s Choice programming.
A24 is showing up with the deepest bench. Jesse Eisenberg’s “The Debut,” a warm and prickly comedy fresh off its Telluride bow, is exactly the kind of movie this award rewards and Jordan Firstman’s “Club Kid,” a Cannes discovery that somehow played even bigger on the fall circuit, gives the studio a second crowd-pleaser with genuine heat.
Netflix is making its clearest push in years with “La Bola Negra,” the queer epic from Spanish duo Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi that tied for best director at Cannes and big names like Penélope Cruz and Glenn Close. It is the front-runner for Toronto’s International People’s Choice Award and the streamer’s most credible best picture play.
Amazon MGM is also juggling a few contenders. Peter Farrelly’s “I Play Rocky,” the origin story of how Sylvester Stallone convinced Hollywood to let him play Rocky Balboa, drew sustained applause at its premiere. Newcomer Anthony Ippolito’s transformation is the talk of the fest. And Farrelly, lest anyone forget, made this exact walk once before when he directed “Green Book,” the 2018 People’s Choice winner that went on to best picture.
Apple Original Films brings a director who already owns this playbook. Siân Heder returns to Toronto with “Being Heumann,” the story of disability-rights icon Judy Heumann and the 28-day 1977 sit-in that reshaped American accessibility law. Heder converted festival goodwill into a best picture win once with “CODA.”
Searchlight Pictures holds the biggest name in the room in Martin McDonagh, whose “Wild Horse Nine” is a top-tier awards contender on paper.
Here’s where I land on the crowd prize itself. My top 10 picks for the TIFF People’s Choice Award:
- “The Debut” (A24)
“La Bola Negra” (Netflix)
“I Play Rocky” (Amazon MGM)
“Being Heumann” (Apple Original Films)
“Club Kid” (A24)
“Elsinore” (Focus Features)
“Possible Love” (Netflix)
“Wild Horse Nine” (Searchlight Pictures)
“Your Mother Your Mother Your Mother” (Amazon MGM)
“Tangles” (Independent Film Company)
The Governors Awards, which will hand out honorary Oscars to Glenn Close and Ridley Scott, will take place Sunday, Nov. 15. Preliminary voting for the Oscars shortlist in 12 categories runs Dec. 7-11, with the shortlist announcement to follow Tuesday, Dec. 15. Following the close of the eligibility period on Dec. 31, 2026, nominations voting will run Jan. 11-15, 2027. The official Oscar nominations will be announced on Thursday, Jan. 21, 2027. The 99th Oscars will take place on Sunday, March 14, 2027 and will be hosted by Conan O’Brien. The ceremony airs live at 7 p.m. ET on ABC and in more than 200 territories worldwide from the Dolby Theatre at Ovation Hollywood.
Projected nomination leaders (films): TBA
Projected nomination leaders (studios): TBA
*** = PREDICTED WINNER
(All predicted nominees listed below are in alphabetical order)
Best Picture
Image Credit: A24 “The Debut” (A24)
Jesse Eisenberg, Ali Herting, Dave McCary, Emma Stone
“Dune: Part Three” (Warner Bros.) ***
Cale Boyter, Mary Parent, Denis Villeneuve
“Fjord” (Neon)
Pascal Caucheteux, Dyveke Bjørkly Graver, Cristian Mungiu, Andrea Berensten Ottmar, Marco Perego, Tudor Reu
“The Invite” (A24)
Ben Browning, Megan Ellison, David Permut
“La Bola Negra” (Netflix)
Javier Ambrossi, Javier Calvo, Jorge Pezzi
“The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures)
Christopher Nolan, Emma Thomas
“Project Hail Mary” (Amazon MGM Studios)
Ryan Gosling, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller, Rachel O’Connor, Amy Pascal
“Wild Horse Nine” (Searchlight Pictures)
Graham Broadbent, Pete Czernin, Martin McDonagh, Anie Overland
“Wildwood” (Laika)
Travis Knight, Sam Wilson
“You Can See Everything” (A24)
Maggie Ambrose, Tatiana Bears, Jack Davis, Nathan Fielder, Lance OppenheimOscar category page with rankings>>>
Directing
Image Credit: Netflix Lee Chang-dong, “Possible Love” (Netflix)
Martin McDonagh, “Wild Horse Nine” (Searchlight Pictures)
Christopher Nolan, “The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures)
Denis Villeneuve, “Dune: Part Three” (Warner Bros.) ***
Olivia Wilde, “The Invite” (A24)Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Actor
Image Credit: Screenshot courtesy YouTube/Searchlight Pictures Tom Cruise, “Digger” (Warner Bros.)
Matt Damon, “The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures)
John Malkovich, “Wild Horse Nine” (Searchlight Pictures) ***
Pedro Pascal, “Behemoth!” (Searchlight Pictures)
Andrew Scott, “Elsinore” (Focus Features)Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Actress
Image Credit: A24 Marion Bailey, “Tender Loving Care” (Bleecker Street)
Rosalind Eleazar, “Misty Green” (A24)
Julianne Moore, “The Debut” (A24) ***
Inde Navarrette, “Obsession” (Focus Features)
Olivia Wilde, “The Invite” (A24)Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Supporting Actor
Image Credit: Searchlight Pictures Steve Buscemi, “Wild Horse Nine” (Searchlight Pictures)
Paul Giamatti, “The Debut” (A24) ***
John Leguizamo, “The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures)
Guy Pearce, “Ink” (Netflix)
Sam Rockwell, “Wild Horse Nine” (Searchlight Pictures)Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Supporting Actress
Image Credit: Universal Pictures Penélope Cruz, “The Invite” (A24)
Anne Hathaway, “The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures) ***
Samantha Morton, “The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures)
Kate O’Flynn, “Tender Loving Care” (Bleecker Street)
Olivia Wilde, “Behemoth!” (Searchlight Pictures)Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Original Screenplay
Image Credit: Courtesy of Bleecker Street “Club Kid” (A24)
Jordan Firstman
“The Debut” (A24)
Jesse Eisenberg
“Fjord” (Neon)
Cristian Mungiu
“Tender Loving Care” (Bleecker Street)
Mike Leigh
“Wild Horse Nine” (Searchlight Pictures) ***
Martin McDonaghAdapted Screenplay
Image Credit: laika “Dune: Part Three” (Warner Bros.)
Brian K. Vaughan, Denis Villeneuve
“The Invite” (A24) ***
Rashida Jones and Will McCormack
“La Bola Negra” (Netflix)
Javier Ambrossi, Javier Calvo, Alberto Conejero
“The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures)
Christopher Nolan
“Wildwood” (Laika)
Chris ButlerCasting
Image Credit: Amazon MGM Studios “Being Heumann” (Apple Original Films) ***
Adam Caldwell, Bernard Telsey
“Club Kid” (A24)
Carmen Cuba
“Dune: Part Three” (Warner Bros.)
Francine Maisler
“I Play Rocky” (Amazon MGM Studios)
Rick Montgomery
“The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures)
John PapsideraAnimated Feature
Image Credit: DreamWorks Animation “Forgotten Island” (DreamWorks Animation)
Joel Crawford, Januel Mercado, Mark Swift
“Ray Gunn” (Netflix)
Brad Bird, John Lasseter, Lisa Beroud, David Ellison, Dana Goldberg
“Tangles” (Independent Film Company)
Leah Nelson
“Toy Story 5” (Pixar)
Andrew Stanton, Lindsey Collins, Jessica Choi
“Wildwood” (Laika) ***
Travis Knight, Sam WilsonProduction Design
Image Credit: Netflix “Dune: Part Three” (Warner Bros.) ***
“The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth” (Netflix)
“La Bola Negra” (Netflix)
“The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures)
“Project Hail Mary” (Amazon MGM Studios)Cinematography
Image Credit: Warner Bros. “Digger” (Warner Bros.)
“Dune: Part Three” (Warner Bros.) ***
“La Bola Negra” (Netflix)
“The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures)
“Project Hail Mary” (Amazon MGM Studios)Costume Design
Image Credit: Screenshot courtesy YouTube/Focus Features “Dune: Part Three” (Warner Bros.) ***
“La Bola Negra” (Netflix)
“Michael” (Lionsgate)
“The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures)
“Sense and Sensibility” (Focus Features)Film Editing
Image Credit: A24 “The Debut” (A24)
“Dune: Part Three” (Warner Bros.)
“The Invite” (A24)
“The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures) ***
“Wild Horse Nine” (Searchlight Pictures)Makeup and Hairstyling
Image Credit: ©Lions Gate/Courtesy Everett Collection “Digger” (Warner Bros.)
“Dune: Part Three” (Warner Bros.) ***
“Michael” (Lionsgate)
“The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures)
“Werwulf” (Focus Features)Sound
Image Credit: Amazon MGM Studios “Behemoth!” (Searchlight Pictures)
“Dune: Part Three” (Warner Bros.) ***
“Michael” (Lionsgate)
“Project Hail Mary” (Amazon MGM Studios)
“The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures)Visual Effects
Image Credit: Toho “Dune: Part Three” (Warner Bros.) ***
“Godzilla Minus Zero” (GKids)
“Project Hail Mary” (Amazon MGM Studios)
“Spider-Man: Brand New Day” (Sony Pictures)
“Wildwood” (Laika)Original Score
Image Credit: Warner Bros. “Behemoth!” (Searchlight Pictures)
“Dune: Part Three” (Warner Bros.) ***
“La Bola Negra” (Netflix)
“The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures)
“Wildwood” (Laika)Original Song
Image Credit: ©Walt Disney Co./Courtesy Everett Collection TBA song from “Behemoth!” (Searchlight Pictures)
“By Any Means” from “By Any Means” (Paramount Pictures)
“This City May Have Chewed Me Up (But It Hasn’t Spit Me Out)” from “The Debut” (A24) ***
“Let Me Sell You a Dream” from “Musk” (Bleecker Street)
“I Knew It, I Knew You” from “Toy Story 5” (Pixar)Documentary Feature
Image Credit: Paul Garnes/Netflix “American Doctor” (Watermelon Pictures)
“Everest: The Other Side” (National Geographic)
“14th” (Netflix)
“Musk” (Bleecker Street)
“Once Upon a Time in Harlem” (Neon) ***International Feature
Image Credit: Courtesy of The Barricades “Everytime” from Germany (1-2 Special)
Dir. Sandra Wollner
“Fjord” from Romania (Neon)
Dir. Cristian Mingui
“La Bola Negra” from Spain (Netflix)
Dir. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo
“Minotaur” from France (Mubi) ***
dir. Andrey Zvyagintsev
“Possible Love” from South Korea (Netflix)
dir. Lee Chang-dong
For more tech updates, stay tuned to our blog.
