For months, policymakers, businesses and trade observers in Washington had been preparing for a turbulent spring and summer around The future of the T-MECthe trade pact that links the United States, Canada and Mexico.

But, to quote former British Prime Minister Harold Macmillan: “Events, my dear boy, events.” The war with Iran has dominated Washington’s attention, removing much of the political heat that was expected to surround the renewal of the pact.

Instead of a loud fight over the future of the agreement, the USMCA has taken a backseat. The conflict with Iran has absorbed the attention of the White House and, in practical terms, has become one of the best developments to keep the trade pact out of the headlines.

Earlier this year, there were concerns that the United States could use the renewal window to force a confrontation with Canada and Mexico, or even threaten a withdrawal. President Trump had already cooled on the deal he once signed, raising questions about how aggressively Washington would approach the next phase.

But as foreign policy dominates the administration’s agenda, the United States has taken a more measured approach. It has confirmed that it will not extend the agreement for another 16 years, without taking more dramatic measures.

Part of that restraint reflects a belief within the administration that the trade relationship has already been reshaped.

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer argues that the White House’s tariff strategy has fundamentally altered North America’s economic ties, shifting the balance with Canada and Mexico in such a way as to make a more confrontational approach unnecessary. But if trade becomes more politically driven, the U.S. auto industry could be the biggest loser.