Inflation in the United States eased last month as the cost of energy and pump filling fell, official figures show.

Prices rose 3.5% in the year through June, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), up from 4.2% in May.

Gasoline prices decreased 9.7% last month, but are still much more expensive than a year ago. On Tuesday, the national average had risen to $3.86 per gallon from $3.79 a week ago, according to the motoring advocacy group AAA.

While the inflation rate has fallen more than expected, the moderation in price increases could be short-lived as renewed conflict in the Middle East is driving up global oil prices again.

The price of a barrel of Brent crude, which is the global oil benchmark, reached $87 on Tuesday, an increase of almost $10 in the space of 24 hours.

The rise in the price of the commodity came after new US military attacks on Iran this week, with President Donald Trump declaring a new naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz and a 20% charge on all cargo shipped through the key waterway used for global trade.

The escalation has already led analysts to predict that inflation will rise in the coming months and that interest rate cuts are unlikely any time soon.

“Gasoline prices have already surpassed June levels again, which means the next inflation report will rise again,” said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank.

Before his first speech to the US Congress, newly appointed Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh said his committee “did not tolerate persistently high inflation.”

“We share a determined commitment to restoring price stability,” he said in prepared remarks.

The Federal Reserve kept US interest rates between 3.5% and 3.75% at Warsh’s first meeting in June and some analysts suggest rates could rise in the coming months.

President Trump pressured Warsh’s predecessor, Jerome Powell, to lower interest rates, and has made clear that he expects Warsh to follow through on his demand to lower borrowing costs for Americans.

But Lindsay James, an investment strategist at wealth management firm Quilter, said that even though Warsh has put his “feet under the table, that doesn’t mean rate cuts are coming to appease President Trump.”

“Instead, we are likely to see a conservative outlook from the Federal Reserve when it meets in a fortnight,” he added.