Sylvie Andrews and her partner not only lost the new home they had helped build when the Eaton Fire devastated Altadena, California, in January 2025. They lost an entire decade of sacrifices they had made to put down roots in their hometown and the community they had created. “We put a lot of blood, sweat and tears into it,” Andrews said. “That’s what we lost in the fire.”

That fire, along with the Palisades Fire to the west, destroyed more than 16,000 structures and killed 31 people. But as Andrews and thousands of Angelenos rushed to evacuate, others saw a financial opportunity. Using Polymarket, the world’s largest prediction market platform, they placed bets on the fires: how they would grow, how long they would last, and how much they would destroy.

Prediction markets are essentially betting websites where people bet on the outcome of events, including elections, sports, the weather, and more. Anything is fair game, from oil prices and the spread of infectious diseases to international incidents. Markets usually ask questions in the form of “yes” or “no,” and the price of a “contract” fluctuates between $0 and $1. A price of 50 cents on a “yes” contract means that the people placing the bets collectively believe that the event has a 50 percent chance of occurring. Market hosts make money by charging a commission for bets.

In January 2025, Polymarket listed nearly 20 questions, created by the platform’s “markets team,” related to the wildfires ravaging Southern California. How many acres will the Palisades Fire burn by Friday, three days after it ignited on a Tuesday? Will the Palisades Fire reach Santa Monica on Sunday? When can the Palisades fire be 50 percent contained? Can the Palisades and Eaton fires be contained before February?

People spent $1.2 million betting on these queries, according to Aeon magazine. “Wow,” Andrews said repeatedly when he learned the figure. “My first opinion is that it is morally reprehensible,” he said. “The fact that someone feels good about doing that blows my mind.”

“Prediction markets are just the Wild West,” said Susan Sherman, who grew up in Pacific Palisades. He lost his childhood home in the Palisades Fire; his late parents had owned it since 1963 and now it was gone. He sold the vacant land a few months ago. “I think (gambling on fires) is a very rude and heartless thing to do.”

As prediction markets grow and a new wildfire season begins, fire survivors and ethicists say betting encourages and rewards insensitive thinking and dangerous behavior.

One of the main concerns arising from wildfire prediction markets is arson. “That’s what’s got me nervous,” Sherman said. In theory, placing a bet could give someone the perverse incentive to start a fire or help it grow. Unlike other disasters, such as hurricanes, floods or extreme heat, a fire can be handled in minutes by a single person. “Systems that link financial gains to wildfire outcomes risk encouraging misuse, including intentional fires, and are not consistent with our mission,” a U.S. Forest Service spokesperson said.

“Imagine what a bad actor could do,” said Ann Skeet, senior director of leadership ethics at Santa Clara University’s Markkula Center for Applied Ethics. “I think a market that could support that kind of activity is a dangerous market.” Firefighters or land managers with exclusive information about a fire’s behavior or an agency’s suppression plans might even be tempted to bet on a fire, which would be considered insider trading.