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3 Statistics That Explain SpaceX’s Stock Price Drop After Historic IPO

3 Statistics That Explain SpaceX’s Stock Price Drop After Historic IPO

In the face of SpaceX’s historic IPO, the comments from skeptics were strong. Some criticized the company’s initial valuation as too high. Others opposed what they considered fantastic ideas that would take decades to realize. Another popular narrative was that retail investors, who were granted a larger share of shares than usual, would be left

In the face of SpaceX’s historic IPO, the comments from skeptics were strong.

Some criticized the company’s initial valuation as too high. Others opposed what they considered fantastic ideas that would take decades to realize. Another popular narrative was that retail investors, who were granted a larger share of shares than usual, would be left without purchasing power in the first days of trading.

Well, those critics are feeling pretty good about themselves lately, with SpaceX stock trading below its $135 offering price for most of the past two sessions after a multi-week slide.

BI checked back in with some of the SpaceX bears we covered in the lead-up to the IPO, and their response was almost universal: “I told you so.” No one has changed their mind that SpaceX does not belong to one of the most valuable companies in the world.

Recent events haven’t helped ease the stock’s woes. SpaceX was forced to abort a rocket launch last Thursday due to an engine failure, sending shares even further down at the end of the week.

Here are 3 quick statistics, listed in decreasing monetary order, that explain what’s going on with SpaceX right now and how the stock could trade in the future:

$1 billion

This is how much market value has been erased from the post-IPO closing high. The chart above tells the story: The stock peaked on the third day of trading, valuing the company at $2.64 trillion. They then lost most of that gain over the following week and have been gradually falling ever since. As of Friday’s close, SpaceX was worth $1.63 trillion.

$5 billion

This is Paper gains for SpaceX short sellers since IPOaccording to data from S3 Partners, which estimates that around 30% of the total float has been sold short. And the success has emboldened these investors, as short-term interest has risen nearly fivefold in the past month, S3 said.

1.37 billion

This is the number of shares. which will be unlocked and can be sold two full business days after SpaceX’s second-quarter earnings report, which will be released after the closing bell on August 17, according to SEC filings. That’s 20% of the company’s early release-eligible shares. Even if just a portion of that were unloaded, it could have a major impact on the public stock price.

…But let’s not get ahead of ourselves

It is not unusual for debutants in the mega-cap market to hit a rough patch before reaching new highs. That’s the path Meta (then Facebook) followed starting in 2012, when it slumped for a few months before transforming into the market-conquering force we know today.

Meanwhile, Wall Street analysts are unabashedly bullish on the stock. As of the end of last week, there were 30 buy ratings, 6 holds and just one sell, according to Bloomberg data. UBS, Bernstein and Raymond James even went so far as to reaffirm their buy ratings on Friday amid the latest bout of selling.

The 12-month consensus price target is $235.34, 90% above Friday’s close. Wall Street is still clearly on board with SpaceX’s bullish thesis and willing to wait out some initial shocks.

No one ever said it was going to be a straight ride up for SpaceX. Just over five weeks away from becoming a public company, it’s finding out how volatile trading can be for a high-growth stock.