Markets see the result of this week’s Federal Reserve meeting as nearly a foregone conclusion, but the implications for markets are more up in the air. Markets are pricing about 93% odds of a rate hike at the end of the Fed’s policy meeting on Wednesday. With inflation at 3.4%, long-term Treasury yields spiking, and
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The Federal Reserve’s hiking cycle suddenly looks alive again. Wall Street was already growing nervous. Oil had pushed back above $100, bond yields were surging, the AI capital-expenditure boom continued to add pressure to credit markets, and Thursday’s producer-price report—which feeds into the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge—came in surprisingly hot. But Chair Kevin Warsh’s ambiguity
The head of the US central bank said policymakers will “have work to do” to if they are not confident cost of living pressures are easing for Americans. Federal Reserve chairman Kevin Warsh said while inflation readings looked better than expected over the summer, they did not show that the current picture had “meaningfully improved”.
Two major events are likely to drive financial markets this week: Nvidia’s second-quarter earnings report and the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. Before diving into each of those, let’s take a step back and look at the bigger picture. Perhaps the biggest development in markets over the last week has been the surge in
